At the turn of the year, it is common practice to look back as well as forward. Looking back, the introduction of kits for and the conversion of exclusive classic cars were certainly highlights in 2023. But what to expect in 2024? Based on developments we see on the horizon, here are three predictions.
Source: Lormauto.eu
First steps from niche to mainstream
Currently, EV conversions are mostly individual projects by enthusiasts and professional workshops. In Europe that could change to some extent in 2024, if concepts like those from Lormauto in France and e-revolt in Germany are successful.
Lormauto converts the popular Renault Twingo to electric and, thanks to the French government subsidizing e-mobility, offers it for rent/lease at a monthly rate of 100 to 200 Euro. After the authorities in France approved the technical concept in November 2023, the market launch is imminent. This will be the first time the average driver could switch to converted vehicles quickly and without major investment. Drivers would save on resources and thus decrease their individual carbon footprint considerably.
e-revolt on the other hand aims at converting mass-produced models like the VW Golf based on standardized kit solutions. Because of the platform concept in the VW Group e-revolt says that its kit solutions will not only fit the VW Golf but also about 40 other models. This would increase the potential for EV conversions enormously. With costs of about 15,000 Euro the pricing is competitive, and the conversion is supposed to take just one day if done in a professional workshop.
So, Lormauto’s and e-revolt’s concepts remove some of the hurdles that have prevented EV conversions form leaving the niche and making some progress towards going mainstream.
Source: Fellten.com
Price pressure on kits
Like Lormauto and e-revolt, more and more conversion companies are pursuing strategies that aim to take the market out of the niche.
To achieve this goal concepts and processes are increasingly standardized and industrialized. Accordingly, we expect the number of conversion kits to grow further. Currently, kits might still be expensive with price tags mostly not yet below the 20,000 Euro mark (including a battery pack). But the more companies enter this market and are looking for sales, the more likely prices are going to fall.
Source: automobil-produktion.de
Price increases for used battery packs
Even if prices for used high-voltage battery packs vary widely (see post Sept 28, 2023: “Used battery pack? Yes, there are plenty available”), there has been a clear downward trend. According to market research company Circular Energy Storage prices for (professionally traded) used EV batteries decreased 19 per cent in 2023 with the average price being 94 US-dollars per kWh.
Unfortunately, this trend may not continue even if the supply of used battery packs will certainly be growing.
The reason: competition in sourcing used battery packs is likely to intensify. An increasing number of companies rely on business models around the collection, testing, and remarketing as well as the dismantling and recycling of used battery packs.
For example, because of new regulations in the EU, considerable recycling capacities have been established to extract lithium as well as copper and other metals from end-of-life (EOL) battery packs. But up-to-now the number of EOL batteries is not sufficient to fill this capacity. Our concern is that this will put pressure on scraping battery packs that could otherwise serve in second life applications such as an EV conversion.
So, our guess for 2024 is that prices will not fall further but rather increase.
Happy New Year and all the best for your projects!
